A seasonal matcha menu calendar tells you which drinks to push in which months, and when to order matcha so it is on your shelf first. I pulled six years of US search data for nine matcha drinks, and the pattern is clear: search demand for the matcha latte itself stays close to flat all year, the seasons mostly change which drink people search for, and three flavors spike for a few months at a small fraction of core volume.
I wrote this for cafe owners and managers planning a menu. It is the demand half of the job. For the supply half (forecasting, grade mix, harvest timing), see my supply security playbook.
Key Takeaways
- Matcha latte and hojicha latte stay close to flat across the year: their typical-month index runs between 80 and 116, and between 87 and 110, where 100 is an average month. Flat means no big seasonal swing, not no change: matcha latte searches fell about 45% from September 2025 to September 2026 for reasons this data cannot explain, so size your base order from your own register.
- The seasons move the mix, not the base. Iced matcha latte's index is 58 to 63 in November and December and 125 from June to August, while hot matcha latte's is 143 in November, 155 in January and 59 in July.
- Three flavors are windows that return in the same months almost every year: pumpkin spice matcha peaked in each of the six Septembers from 2021 to 2026, peppermint matcha in December in five of six seasons, and sakura matcha latte between March and May in all six seasons (a season runs October to September).
- A limited-time drink is a timing decision, not a volume decision. In my made-up cafe it adds at most about 2 kg of matcha over eight weeks. Order about two weeks ahead for in-stock matcha and about ten weeks ahead for a made-to-order run (my rule of thumb).
What does a seasonal matcha menu calendar look like, month by month?
A seasonal matcha menu calendar for US cafes runs in four blocks. The numbers in the middle column are typical-month indexes, where 100 is an average month for that drink and 200 is twice that. The next section explains how I built them and shows the full table.
| Months | What the search data says (index, 100 = average month) | Menu move |
|---|---|---|
| August to October | Pumpkin spice matcha 201, 451 and 340. Iced matcha latte falls from 125 in August to 83 in October, while hot matcha latte climbs from 68 to 122. | Launch pumpkin spice around August 1 and retire it after October. Bring hot matcha latte forward in October. |
| November to January | Hot matcha latte 143, 112 and 155. Peppermint matcha 260 in November and 364 in December. Iced matcha latte 58, 63 and 90. Matcha latte 82 in November and 80 in December, a mild typical dip that moves with how the monthly snapshots are merged (November 2025 was one of its highest months). | Hot matcha latte at the top of the board. Run peppermint from about November 1 to the end of December. Keep iced on, off the front. |
| February to April | Strawberry matcha 94, 124 and 130. Matcha lemonade 77, 112 and 137. Iced matcha latte 98, 111 and 122. Sakura matcha latte 87, 197 and 221. Hot matcha latte 103, 109 and 82. | Move strawberry, lemonade and iced up the board from March. Sakura as a small March to May special, if at all. |
| May to July | Matcha lemonade 124, 135 and 138. Iced matcha latte 108, 125 and 125. Strawberry matcha 139, 112 and 130. Hot matcha latte 72, 63 and 59. | Iced, lemonade and strawberry at the front. Take hot matcha latte off the front of the board. Place the pumpkin spice order. |
What does six years of US search data say about seasonal matcha demand?
Two drinks stay close to flat, four lean with the seasons by about 2 to 3x, and three behave like short windows. The numbers are monthly Google Ads search volumes for the United States from late 2020 to September 2026, which I pulled on October 22, 2026 through the DataForSEO API (historical keyword data and search volume). I tracked nine drinks.
How was the typical month calculated?
Searches for most of these phrases have grown fast, so raw peaks and lows mostly show growth, not seasons. To see the season, I divided each month by the 12-month average centered on it, which divides out a smooth trend, and took the median for each calendar month across the years. That needs six months on either side, so the index covers February 2021 to March 2026, with five or six observations per calendar month. In the table below, 100 is an average month for that drink and 200 is twice that. A season, in the repeat counts in this article, runs October to September.
What are the limits of this data?
- Rounded volumes. Google Ads reports rounded volumes (Google Ads Help), so small differences are noise. Where DataForSEO's monthly snapshots disagreed about a month (81 of 733 month values across the ten phrases I pulled, and 34 of 74 for iced matcha latte), I used the newest. Re-running the index with the oldest snapshot instead moves 103 of the 108 cells by 10 points or less and changes no conclusion here. The biggest moves are sakura's May (159 to 210) and matcha latte's November (82 to 95), so read those two cells as soft.
- Interest, not sales. This is search interest. It shows when people look, not how much they buy, so check your own register before you act on it.
- A recent drop. The index divides out trend by design, so it does not show that matcha latte searches fell from 110,000 in September 2025 to 60,500 in September 2026 (about 113,000 a month on average in 2025, about 82,000 from January to September 2026), a fall of about 45%. I cannot tell from this data whether that is demand or a change in how Google reports it, so size your base order from your own register. It is also why I judge the typical month and not any single year.
- Marketing and exposure. Flavor searches partly follow product launches and press, so a window can shift with marketing, not only with the calendar.
- Monthly resolution. The data cannot say which week to launch. The dates in this article are my own picks inside each window.
As a check, a phrase I know well, "how much matcha powder per cup", came back at 590 a month. Four terms I tried (gingerbread matcha, seasonal matcha drinks, cafe matcha menu, matcha frappe) returned no volume, which means Google reported none, not that nobody orders them.
What does the full month-by-month table show?
Cells at 120 or above are shaded green and cells at 69 or below are grey. The swing column is the highest typical month divided by the lowest, computed from unrounded values, so it can differ slightly from the rounded cells.
Scroll sideways on a phone.
| Drink | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matcha latte | 97 | 93 | 116 | 105 | 104 | 99 | 102 | 110 | 100 | 85 | 82 | 80 | 1.4x |
| Hojicha latte | 101 | 93 | 110 | 110 | 105 | 96 | 101 | 98 | 96 | 94 | 91 | 87 | 1.3x |
| Strawberry matcha | 70 | 94 | 124 | 130 | 139 | 112 | 130 | 105 | 79 | 67 | 56 | 51 | 2.7x |
| Iced matcha latte | 90 | 98 | 111 | 122 | 108 | 125 | 125 | 125 | 97 | 83 | 58 | 63 | 2.1x |
| Hot matcha latte | 155 | 103 | 109 | 82 | 72 | 63 | 59 | 68 | 97 | 122 | 143 | 112 | 2.6x |
| Matcha lemonade | 71 | 77 | 112 | 137 | 124 | 135 | 138 | 115 | 91 | 76 | 59 | 57 | 2.4x |
| Pumpkin spice matcha | 17 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 201 | 451 | 340 | 81 | 23 | 70x |
| Peppermint matcha | 93 | 59 | 63 | 45 | 55 | 29 | 35 | 34 | 41 | 86 | 260 | 364 | 12x |
| Sakura matcha latte | 58 | 87 | 197 | 221 | 159 | 122 | 80 | 66 | 51 | 42 | 43 | 40 | 5.5x |
What does the year look like for matcha latte, iced and hot?
The shape is easier to see for the three drinks that matter on most menus. The chart below shows matcha latte, iced matcha latte and hot matcha latte on the same scale.
For scale, here are the actual volumes for the last twelve months, October 2025 to September 2026. Each month appears once in this window, so August and September are 2026 and October to December are 2025.
Scroll sideways on a phone.
| Drink | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matcha latte | 90,500 | 110,000 | 90,500 | 110,000 | 74,000 | 90,500 | 90,500 | 90,500 | 74,000 | 74,000 | 74,000 | 60,500 |
| Hojicha latte | 12,100 | 12,100 | 12,100 | 12,100 | 12,100 | 14,800 | 14,800 | 18,100 | 14,800 | 14,800 | 14,800 | 18,100 |
| Strawberry matcha | 27,100 | 22,200 | 22,200 | 27,100 | 27,100 | 33,100 | 33,100 | 33,100 | 27,100 | 27,100 | 27,100 | 27,100 |
| Iced matcha latte | 12,100 | 9,900 | 8,100 | 12,100 | 12,100 | 12,100 | 9,900 | 12,100 | 9,900 | 9,900 | 9,900 | 9,900 |
| Hot matcha latte | 1,900 | 2,400 | 2,400 | 2,400 | 1,900 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,000 | 880 | 1,000 | 1,600 |
| Matcha lemonade | 3,600 | 2,900 | 2,400 | 2,900 | 2,900 | 4,400 | 4,400 | 5,400 | 4,400 | 5,400 | 4,400 | 3,600 |
| Pumpkin spice matcha | 2,400 | 720 | 260 | 140 | 70 | 90 | 50 | 70 | 70 | 210 | 2,400 | 4,400 |
| Peppermint matcha | 210 | 1,300 | 1,600 | 320 | 140 | 140 | 110 | 90 | 70 | 90 | 90 | 140 |
| Sakura matcha latte | 90 | 90 | 90 | 70 | 90 | 260 | 320 | 170 | 140 | 90 | 90 | 70 |
Which matcha drinks stay steady all year?
Matcha latte and hojicha latte come closest to steady. Matcha latte's typical-month index runs from 80 in December to 116 in March, a 1.4x spread, and hojicha latte's from 87 in December to 110 in March and April, 1.3x. In the last twelve months, matcha latte ran from 60,500 searches in September 2026 to 110,000 in November 2025 and January 2026, and hojicha latte from 12,100 (October to February) to 18,100 (May and September).
For a menu, matcha latte is the umbrella drink, and the umbrella is close to flat. I would keep your matcha order on a steady cadence and move the menu mix around it, not the other way round. For sizing the order, use the reorder math in my supplier backup plan and your own grams per day.
How do iced, hot, lemonade and strawberry matcha follow the seasons?
Iced, hot, lemonade and strawberry matcha lean with the seasons by about 2.1x to 2.7x, from a trough in late autumn or winter to a high in spring or summer. The exception is hot matcha latte, which runs the other way. In every one of the six seasons in the data, iced matcha latte and matcha lemonade were lowest in November or December, and hot matcha latte was lowest between May and July (tied with August in the first season).
- Iced matcha latte: index 58 in November and 63 in December, up to 125 in June, July and August (swing 2.1x).
- Hot matcha latte: index 143 in November and 155 in January, down to 59 in July (2.6x). Its high months cluster from October to January.
- Matcha lemonade: index 57 in December, up to 137, 124, 135 and 138 from April to July (2.4x).
- Strawberry matcha: index 51 in December, up to 124, 130, 139, 112 and 130 from March to July (2.7x).
These indexes compare each drink with its own average, so they say when a drink is strong, not how big it is. Iced is also the bigger search phrase. In the last twelve months, iced matcha latte's weakest month (December, 8,100 searches) drew 3.4x what "hot matcha latte" drew in its best months (2,400, November to January). They are two different search phrases, and I'd guess plain "matcha latte" carries many hot-drink searches, so read that as iced holding up in winter, not as iced outselling hot.
The practical move is board position, not matcha volume. Keep iced on the menu all year. Put the hot matcha latte at the top of the board from October to January, and put iced, lemonade and strawberry at the top from March to August. If you build iced drinks at speed, my whisk-free build for cafes covers the bench side.
Which limited-time matcha flavors earn a menu slot, and for how long?
Pumpkin spice matcha, peppermint matcha and sakura matcha latte behave like windows, and each returned in nearly every year of the data. The chart shows each one's typical-month index.
How long does the pumpkin spice matcha window last?
Pumpkin spice matcha demand lasts about three months, with the heart in September. It peaked in September in all six seasons. Its typical-month index is 201 in August (twice an average month), 451 in September (4.5 times), 340 in October and 81 in November, and under 25 from December to July. The September peaks were 390 searches in 2021, 880, 1,000, 1,900, 5,400 in 2025 and 4,400 in 2026: a window that grew for four years and then eased. In the last twelve months it ran 2,400 searches in August 2026, 4,400 in September 2026 and 2,400 in October 2025. My read is a run from about August 1 through October. The home version is my pumpkin spice matcha recipe.
How long does the peppermint matcha window last?
Peppermint matcha demand lasts two months. It peaked in December in five of the six seasons. The sixth had a one-month spike of 1,300 in April 2025, with December 2024 at 1,000. The typical-month index is 86 in October, 260 in November, 364 in December and 93 in January. In the latest season it ran 1,300 searches in November 2025 and 1,600 in December 2025. If you run it, run it from about November 1 through the end of December.
Is a sakura matcha latte worth a menu slot?
A sakura matcha latte is the smallest of the three, and I'd call it a garnish rather than a menu line. It peaked between March and May in all six seasons, though the first two seasons peaked at only 50 and 70 searches, near Google's rounding floor, so lean on the later four. The typical-month index is 197 in March, 221 in April, 159 in May and 122 in June, and under 90 from July to February. The latest season ran 260 searches in March 2026, 320 in April and 170 in May. A cherry blossom special for March to May is a nice touch if your regulars like a seasonal moment, but the data does not support building a program around it.
How big are these windows next to matcha latte?
Keep the scale in view. In September 2026, pumpkin spice matcha's 4,400 searches are about 7% of matcha latte's 60,500 that month. Peppermint's December 2025 peak of 1,600 is under 2% of matcha latte's 90,500 that month. These are search terms, not sales, but the gap is wide enough that I would not let a limited-time drink pull your attention, or your matcha order, away from the base menu. For pricing the extras, use my matcha latte profit margin worked example, and for building one that lasts past the hype, my guide to building a signature matcha drink.
How much matcha does a seasonal drink really need?
A seasonal drink needs less matcha than you would guess. In a made-up cafe that pours 180 g of matcha a day (40 lattes at 3 g plus 10 large iced drinks at 6 g, the same cafe as in my backup plan article), a limited-time drink that sells 12 a day at 3 g adds 36 g a day. That is 20% on top of the base. Over an eight week run of 56 days it comes to 2,016 g, about 2 kg. Over a full 13 week pumpkin spice season of 91 days it comes to 3,276 g, about 3.3 kg.
Those are upper bounds at 12 a day. They assume none of those guests would have ordered a regular matcha drink anyway, and some of them probably would have. The cafe, the 12 a day and the run lengths are invented for the arithmetic, so swap in your own counts after your first week of sales. Because hot and iced trade places through the year, your total grams may move less than either drink's line, but I can't see your register, so count it before you assume.
Two things follow. First, you do not need to over-buy matcha for a limited-time drink. In my view, the flavor ingredient, the cups and the shelf space are the bigger decisions, and those come from your flavor supplier, not from me. Second, use the same grade you already pour in your core drinks. If the pumpkin drink flops in week three, the leftover matcha goes into your regular lattes. Our pouches are nitrogen-flushed, heat-sealed aluminum with a shelf life of 2 years from packing, unopened and stored cool, so a few extra sealed pouches are not a freshness gamble. For choosing the grade, see matcha for cafes and lattes.
How far ahead should a cafe order matcha for a seasonal menu?
A cafe should order in-stock matcha about two weeks ahead of a launch and a made-to-order run about ten weeks ahead (my rule of thumb in both cases). Work backward from the date the drink goes on the board.
Where do the two-week and ten-week numbers come from?
Our Latte Grade (Organic) and Ceremonial (Organic) are held in US inventory and ship in 2 to 3 business days, and your written quote confirms the lead time. Our shipping policy lists Standard Shipping at 3 to 5 days. That is about eight days at worst on paper, and in my backup plan article I plan on ten with a weekend in the middle, so for a launch date I call it two weeks and leave room for a late truck and a tasting.
A made-to-order run from Japan takes 4 to 6 weeks from deposit to shipment-ready, with transit quoted on top, and on those shipments you are the importer of record (the bulk matcha lead time guide has the details). Six weeks for the run, about three for transit and customs (my allowance, since the quote states transit separately) and a week to taste the lot make my ten weeks.
For a drink that needs about 2 kg, in-stock is usually the better fit, because a made-to-order run has its own minimum, which your quote confirms. The made-to-order dates matter for bigger plans, such as a program across several locations.
| Drink goes on the board | Made-to-order deposit (10 weeks ahead) | In-stock order (2 weeks ahead) |
|---|---|---|
| Peppermint matcha, November 1, 2026 | August 23, 2026 | October 18, 2026 |
| Sakura matcha latte, March 1, 2027 | December 21, 2026 | February 15, 2027 |
| Pumpkin spice matcha, August 1, 2027 | May 23, 2027 | July 18, 2027 |
As I write this on October 22, 2026, both peppermint dates have passed. If you want it this year, order in-stock now and launch about two weeks after you order. The sakura deposit date, December 21, is still ahead. If you want to taste before you order, request free samples on the wholesale page.
How do quote windows, harvest and prices fit in?
Our written quotes hold for 21 days, so ask early enough to sample and still order inside the window. Matcha prices also move with the harvest cycle: the Kyoto opening tencha auction was on May 16, 2026, and I explain what that does to prices on shelves, an effect that typically reaches tins from fall, in my Kyoto auction piece.
The farm calendar sits behind all of this: matcha's raw ingredient, tencha, is made from tea leaves grown with direct sunlight blocked, and it is then ground into the powder we call matcha (JETRO), and the first flush is picked between late April and mid-May (World Green Tea Association). The supply calendar and the menu calendar run on different clocks, which is why it helps to share a forecast with your supplier months ahead, as I describe in the supply security playbook above.
How do you test a seasonal matcha drink before you commit?
To test a seasonal matcha drink, run one flavor for three weeks on one matcha lot and count it every day. That is my own rule of thumb, but it is cheap and it replaces my made-up 12 a day with your real number.
Use free samples to build the recipe first. Wholesale samples are free, one set per business, in 30 g mylar bags, and every grade is available, which is enough to put through your own machine and taste beside what you pour now. To judge the matcha itself before you buy a lot, follow my sample bench test.
What does One with Tea offer for a seasonal matcha menu?
The in-stock minimum is 1 kg, and bulk scales to 100 kg and up. A made-to-order run has its own minimum, which your quote confirms. Latte Grade (Organic) and Ceremonial (Organic) are USDA Organic, held in US inventory and ship in 2 to 3 business days with no customs entry on your side. Superior and Royal are premium Uji ceremonial grades that are not organic certified, and their availability and lead time come in your quote. A made-to-order run from Japan takes 4 to 6 weeks from deposit with transit on top, reserved with a 50% deposit. My written quote follows within 2 business days after you send the form, holds for 21 days, and covers pricing, the minimum for how you buy, lead time and sample terms.
If you are planning a seasonal menu, apply on the wholesale page with your grade, your kilos a month and the date you want the first drink on the board, or write to info@onewithtea.com with questions first. I read every request and reply myself.
Christian
Frequently Asked Questions
When should a cafe launch a pumpkin spice matcha?
Around August 1. Pumpkin spice matcha searches peaked in September in all six seasons from 2021 to 2026, and in the latest year they ran 2,400 in August 2026, 4,400 in September 2026 and 2,400 in October 2025, then fell to 720 in November 2025. Plan a run from August through October, and order in-stock matcha about two weeks ahead or a made-to-order run about ten weeks ahead (my rule of thumb).
Do people still want iced matcha in winter?
Interest drops but does not disappear. The typical-month index for iced matcha latte is 58 to 63 in November and December against 125 from June to August, yet in the last twelve months its weakest month, December, drew 8,100 searches, 3.4x the 2,400 that "hot matcha latte" drew in its best months. Search is not sales, but I would keep iced on the menu all year and put hot at the top of the board from October to January.
Is matcha latte demand seasonal?
Only mildly. Across six years of US search data, the typical-month index for matcha latte runs from 80 in December to 116 in March, a 1.4x spread, where 100 is an average month. The seasons mostly change which matcha drink people search for, not whether they search for matcha latte.
What matcha drinks should a cafe feature in fall and winter?
Put hot matcha latte at the top of the board from October to January, where its typical-month index runs 122, 143, 112 and 155. Run pumpkin spice matcha from about August to October and peppermint matcha in November and December, and keep iced matcha latte on the menu all year.
How much extra matcha does a seasonal drink need?
In a worked example cafe pouring 180 g of matcha a day, 12 limited-time drinks a day at 3 g add 36 g a day, so about 2 kg over an eight week run and about 3.3 kg over a 13 week pumpkin spice season. Those are upper bounds, since some of those guests would probably have ordered a regular matcha drink anyway. Replace the 12 with your own daily count.
How many weeks ahead should a cafe place a seasonal matcha order?
About two weeks ahead for in-stock matcha, which ships in 2 to 3 business days from US inventory, and about ten weeks ahead for a made-to-order run, which takes 4 to 6 weeks from deposit plus transit. Both are my own rules of thumb, with room for customs and a tasting week.
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