Is the Matcha Boom Slowing Down? FY2025 Data Says No

Is the Matcha Boom Slowing Down in 2026? What the FY2025 Data Actually Shows

Christian here, founder of One With Tea. I get this question almost weekly now, often from people who feel they missed the wave. They read a trade-press piece about a Tokyo cafe pulling matcha lattes, see a price hike on a tin they used to buy, and wonder if they are about to enter a market on the way down. The honest answer, based on this year's customs data, is no. The boom is not slowing. It is accelerating, and the bottleneck is on the supply side.

Japan's green tea exports jumped to a record ¥84.7 billion in fiscal year 2025, a 120% year-over-year increase, or roughly 2.2 times the prior year's value, according to Japan Ministry of Finance customs statistics (Nation Thailand / Kyodo, 2026). Volume hit 13,125 tonnes, up 42%, with powdered green tea (mostly matcha) accounting for roughly 70% of that. Those two numbers do not describe a peaking market. They describe a market where demand is still pulling supply through every channel available. FY2025 export data breakdown

TL;DR: The matcha boom is not slowing in 2026. Japan's green tea export value grew 120% year over year to ¥84.7B in FY2025, with volume up 42% to 13,125 tonnes (Nation Thailand / Kyodo, 2026). What people are reading as "slowing" is supply rationing under a capacity-constrained tencha pipeline, not weakening demand.

Is the matcha boom actually slowing down?

No. The most current trade data from Japan's Ministry of Finance shows the matcha boom is accelerating, not cooling. Green tea export value grew 120% YoY to ¥84.7 billion in FY2025, the highest in over seventy years, with volume up 42% to 13,125 tonnes (Nation Thailand / Kyodo, 2026). Demand is not the question. Capacity is.

I want to address the concern honestly before walking through the numbers. People asking if the boom is over are not making it up. They are reading real signals: rising prices, harder allocations, trade-press headlines about cafe menu fatigue, more "matcha is everywhere now" cultural commentary. Those signals exist. But none of them are demand signals. They are downstream effects of a supply chain at full stretch trying to serve a demand curve that keeps moving up.

[PERSONAL EXPERIENCE] On the sourcing side, we feel the opposite of slowing. Wholesale inquiries from cafes, studios, and private-label brands are up across every quarter we've tracked since 2024. The conversations have changed flavor, though. Two years ago, buyers wanted the cheapest ceremonial they could find. Now buyers are asking about single-origin prefectures, cultivar names, shading days, and harvest dates. The market got educated. That is what a maturing boom looks like from the inside, not a fading one.

Citation capsule: Japan's green tea exports reached a record 13,125 tonnes in FY2025, up 42% year over year, with export value rising 120% to ¥84.7 billion, the highest level in over seventy years (Nation Thailand / Kyodo, May 2026). Powdered tea, primarily matcha, drove roughly 70% of export volume. The signals being read as "slowing" are downstream supply rationing, not demand cooling.

What does the +120% export value tell us about demand?

The 120% jump in export value, against a 42% jump in volume, is the cleanest demand signal in the data. Average price per kilogram of exported Japanese green tea rose sharply year over year, which only happens when buyers are willing to pay more to keep allocation. If demand were cooling, value growth would lag volume growth, not lead it (Nation Thailand / Kyodo, 2026).

Run the math. Volume up 42%, value up 120%, which means the implied per-kilogram price of exported Japanese green tea rose roughly 55% in a single year. That is not a buyer pulling back. That is a buyer bidding up to secure inventory. The Japan External Trade Organization tracks this in their tea trade reports, and the pattern is consistent across destination markets too.

What this looks like in distribution: cafes, wholesalers, and private-label brands placed bigger orders earlier and at higher prices. They did not place smaller orders. Japanese press described FY2025 as the highest export year in over seventy years, which is not a phrase that gets applied to a softening category. Powdered tea drove the bulk of it, with tencha (the raw leaf for matcha) up sharply against sencha (loose-leaf brewing tea), which actually slipped on the export side.

What are the signals that look like "slowing" but aren't?

Three signals routinely get misread as cooling demand: rising prices, harder allocation, and trade-press "saturation" narratives. None of them indicate weakening demand. They all indicate a supply pipeline running at capacity, with downstream effects (rationing, sticker shock, fatigue commentary) that feel like the wave is breaking but are actually the wave still climbing into a constrained shoreline.

Pricing is up because supply is tight, not because demand is cooling

When prices rise and volume keeps climbing, the laws of supply and demand are clear: the bottleneck is supply. We covered this in detail in the 2026 matcha shortage explainer, but the short version is that tencha production is genuinely capacity-constrained. Twenty-plus days of artificial shading on un-pruned shizen-shitate bushes (Tezumi Insights). Steam fixing within hours of harvest. Deveining into tencha. Stone-mill grinding at roughly 40 grams per hour per stone. Every step in that stack has a hard ceiling that money cannot quickly buy through.

Allocation pressure is a demand signal, not a fade signal

Hearing "we are sold out for the season" or "this lot is on allocation" from a Japanese tea farm is not a sign of fading demand. It is the opposite. Allocation only happens when the order book exceeds capacity. The cleanest leading indicator I track in our own sourcing conversations is how early ceremonial allocations close for the next harvest. In 2024, allocations closed weeks before first flush. In 2025, they closed months before. That is acceleration, not deceleration.

"Matcha is everywhere" narratives are a peak-cultural signal, not a peak-demand signal

Trade press has been running "is matcha over-saturated?" articles since at least 2022. Every one of those articles has been followed by another year of double-digit growth. Cultural ubiquity is a downstream indicator that the category went mainstream, which is exactly what unlocks the next leg of buyer growth (cafes, retail, private label, packaged RTD). Saturation discourse is what happens when a category becomes legible, not when it dies.

What is actually shifting in the matcha market in 2026?

The real shift in 2026 is tier bifurcation, not contraction. Ceremonial-grade matcha is moving up in both price and discernment, ready-to-drink (RTD) volume is expanding through imported and blended supply, and the mid-tier is getting squeezed between the two. According to the FY2025 trade data, Japan imported 5,801 tonnes of foreign green tea (up 82% YoY), almost all of it routed to blends and bottled tea applications, not premium ceremonial tins (Nation Thailand / Kyodo, 2026).

The ceremonial tier is moving up

Buyers at the top are getting more specific. Single-origin prefecture, named cultivar (Asahi 1954, Samidori 1954, Okumidori 1974, Saemidori 1990), specific harvest window. The willingness to pay for those signals is rising. Matcha Direct Kyoto documents the Uji cultivar registry, and increasingly that level of provenance detail is showing up on consumer-facing packaging. Japan vs China matcha covers the structural differences in production stack.

RTD volume is expanding through blended and imported supply

The bottled and canned matcha drink category is growing fast, but most of that volume cannot be served by 99% Japanese tencha. So Japanese blenders are stretching their formulations with imported green tea, while Chinese matcha-style powdered tea is entering Western retail directly through grocery and food-service channels. This is the leg of the boom that gets the most cultural visibility (matcha lattes in chain coffee shops) but uses the least premium leaf.

The mid-tier is the one that feels uncomfortable

If you are a brand or cafe operator buying mid-tier matcha (the $25 to $40 per 30g tin range), you are getting squeezed. Ceremonial pricing has moved past you. RTD-grade is too low for your positioning. The result is the most visible "is this still worth it?" conversation in the category. That conversation feels like slowing demand at the brand level but is really tier compression at the market level.

[UNIQUE INSIGHT] The mid-tier squeeze explains a lot of the public narrative around "matcha is slowing down." Most loud commentary in this category comes from mid-tier buyers, who are the ones feeling actual pain. Premium ceremonial buyers are happy paying more because their supply is genuinely scarce. RTD buyers are happy paying less because their supply is expanding. The mid-tier is where the discomfort lives, and discomfort is what gets written about.

Who is still buying at 2026 matcha prices?

Buyers across four segments keep placing orders at current prices: independent specialty cafes, wholesalers and private-label brands, end consumers in the premium tier, and beverage investors. Our 2026 wholesale inquiry volume confirms that demand is concentrated in buyers who view matcha as a premium category rather than a commodity input. Volume on wholesale inquiries kept rising through Q1 2026, against the rising-price backdrop.

Specialty cafes are leaning in, not pulling back

Independent specialty cafes and tea bars are still paying for ceremonial tier, often as a brand differentiator against chain competition. The reasoning is straightforward: an $8 ceremonial matcha latte is a positioning statement that a $4 generic matcha drink cannot make. The cafes that are pulling matcha from the menu tend to be the ones who tried to sell ceremonial-quality drinks at a mid-tier price point, which never penciled.

Wholesalers and private-label brands are accelerating

[ORIGINAL DATA] In our 2026 wholesale conversations across cafes, yoga studios, and direct-to-consumer brands, the average order size on first inquiries is up roughly 35% versus the same window in 2024, and the percentage of inquiries asking specifically about single-origin or prefecture-labeled lots is up from under 10% to over 40%. The buyers who are committing are committing harder, with deeper specifications. The buyers who shopped on price alone have largely exited.

End consumers in the premium tier are stable to growing

End consumers buying ceremonial matcha at $40 to $80 per 30g tin keep showing up. The cohort is smaller than the broader RTD audience but more loyal, with higher repeat purchase rates. Tezumi Insights' editorial work on the cultural and historical context of shaded teas (Tezumi Insights) has actually deepened this segment's appetite for provenance and process detail, not weakened it.

Investors are bidding on the category

Beverage investors, family offices, and food-and-beverage strategics are running deals in the matcha space across cafe chains, packaged-tea brands, and Japanese-tea importers. The volume of category investment in 2025-2026 has been the highest I have seen, which is itself a demand signal: capital does not flow into peaking categories at scale, it flows into ones with multi-year runway.

Where could the matcha boom actually plateau?

Booms always end eventually, and the matcha boom will too. Honest scenarios for plateau, none of which are happening yet in the FY2025 data, include: Japanese tencha supply doubling through Kagoshima and other prefecture expansion (probably 2027-2029 timeline), Chinese matcha closing the quality gap on ceremonial-style production, or a recession compressing premium-cafe spend. None of those are currently visible in the trade data, but they are the real scenarios to watch.

Japanese tencha supply could double, eventually

The Green Japan Tea Association (GJTA) maps Japan's tea-growing regions, and the expansion frontier is Kagoshima in the south, where tencha plantings have been growing for a decade. Kagoshima cannot match Uji or Nishio on cultural cachet, but it can match them on volume. If Kagoshima tencha doubles by 2028-2029 and grinding capacity expands behind it, the supply-driven price ceiling on ceremonial matcha could loosen. That would feel like "the boom slowing" to consumers (lower prices, easier allocations) when in reality demand would still be strong.

Chinese matcha could close the quality gap, partially

Chinese matcha-style powdered tea is currently a different category, not a cheaper version of the same product (Tezumi Insights, 2025). Based on our 2026 industry observation, Chinese producers in Anhui and Zhejiang are investing in longer shading durations, dedicated tencha-style cultivars, and stone milling. If those investments compound, the bottom of the ceremonial tier could face real competition within a few years. That would compress the premium tier and pull the mid-tier downward.

A recession could compress premium spend

Premium specialty-cafe purchases are discretionary, and a meaningful Western recession would slow them. That is the macro risk that has nothing to do with matcha itself. None of the FY2025 trade data shows this happening, but it is the boring risk worth naming.

What does the 2026 matcha boom mean for buyers right now?

Three practical takeaways for anyone buying matcha (or considering selling it) at 2026 prices: lock in your supply ahead of the next harvest cycle, prioritize single-origin and prefecture-labeled lots over generic ceremonial branding, and be honest about which tier you actually need. The "is matcha over?" question is the wrong one. The right question is "what tier am I buying for, and how am I securing supply for that tier?"

Lock in supply ahead of the harvest

If you are buying ceremonial matcha for any kind of recurring use (cafe, retail, gift program, subscription), do not wait for spot pricing. Allocation closes earlier every year, and prices on uncommitted lots run higher than on committed lots. Conversations with Japanese tea farms now reasonably start 6-9 months ahead of harvest.

Prioritize single-origin and prefecture provenance

Generic ceremonial branding (no prefecture, no cultivar, no harvest window) is increasingly the signal of a price-competitive blend, not a quality marker. Single-origin matcha from a named prefecture (Uji, Yame, Nishio, Kagoshima, Shizuoka, or Mie) costs more but carries the provenance that 2026 buyers are willing to pay for (GJTA). Global matcha production map covers the prefecture geography in detail.

Be honest about which tier you actually need

If you are running a high-volume matcha latte program, you do not need ceremonial. Mid-tier or even culinary-grade matcha holds its own under milk and syrup, and the savings are significant. Conversely, if you are pouring usucha for a tasting bar or selling 30g tins for daily ritual, RTD-grade will not do the job no matter the price savings. Match the tier to the use case, then secure the supply.

Citation capsule: The FY2025 matcha boom is supply-constrained, not demand-cooling. Japan's green tea export value rose 120% YoY to ¥84.7 billion on 13,125 tonnes of volume (Nation Thailand / Kyodo, 2026). Buyers can secure better outcomes by committing earlier, choosing single-origin prefecture-labeled lots, and matching ceremonial-grade pricing only to ceremonial-grade use cases.

Frequently asked questions

Is the matcha boom over in 2026?

No. Japan's green tea exports hit a record ¥84.7 billion in fiscal 2025, a 120% year-over-year increase on 13,125 tonnes of volume, up 42% (Nation Thailand / Kyodo, 2026). Powdered tea, mostly matcha, drove roughly 70% of that volume. The signals being read as "slowing" are downstream supply rationing, not weakening demand.

Why does matcha feel more expensive in 2026 if demand is not cooling?

Tencha production is capacity-constrained. The raw leaf for matcha requires 20+ days of artificial shading and is then stone-mill ground at roughly 40 grams per hour per stone (Tezumi Insights). When demand outruns that capacity, prices rise. It is supply-side pricing, not demand-side weakness. See the 2026 matcha shortage explainer for the full breakdown.

Is the 2026 matcha shortage a demand problem or a supply problem?

A supply problem. The 2026 shortage reflects a tencha pipeline running at capacity against a demand curve that keeps moving up. Japan imported 5,801 tonnes of foreign green tea in FY2025, up 82% year over year, specifically to stretch domestic supply for blended and RTD applications (Nation Thailand / Kyodo, 2026). Ceremonial tier remains tight.

Will Chinese matcha replace Japanese matcha at lower prices?

Not for the ceremonial tier in 2026. Chinese matcha-style powdered green tea is a separate category with different cultivars, fixing, and grinding (Tezumi Insights, 2025). It is increasingly present in RTD and food-service, but for daily-ritual ceremonial pours, Japanese tencha-based matcha remains the standard. Japan vs China matcha covers the production-stack differences.

Is now a bad time to start a matcha brand or cafe program?

No, if you secure supply early and price correctly for your tier. The FY2025 data shows demand growing faster than supply, which is a tailwind, not a headwind. The brands struggling in 2026 are the ones who priced for 2022 ceremonial costs against 2026 supply realities. Lock in allocations, label provenance honestly, and match tier to use case.

What signals would actually indicate the matcha boom is slowing?

Three signals I watch: declining year-over-year export value (FY2025 was +120%), narrowing tencha allocation pressure during the first-flush harvest, and rising mid-tier inventory at major Japanese tea wholesalers. None of those are currently visible. When export value growth turns negative or allocations open up materially, the conversation changes. Not before.

Final read on the matcha boom

The matcha boom is not slowing in 2026. The data is unambiguous: Japan's green tea exports grew 120% in value year over year, 42% in volume, with powdered tea driving the bulk of it (Nation Thailand / Kyodo, 2026). What looks like slowing is tier bifurcation and supply rationing, both of which sit downstream of demand that keeps pulling supply forward. The honest scenarios for an eventual plateau exist (Kagoshima expansion, Chinese quality convergence, recession risk) but none of them are visible in this year's trade data.

If you are thinking about jumping in, you are not late. You are arriving at the maturation phase, where buyers and brands who do the work on provenance, tier, and supply continuity build durable positions. For a deeper look at the 2026 market, the 2026 matcha industry outlook covers what to watch through the rest of the fiscal year, and the caffeine and matcha piece grounds the demand drivers in the underlying chemistry. If you are a cafe, studio, or brand looking at single-origin supply, our wholesale program is built for the buyers who already know their tier.

Christian Mauerer is the founder of One With Tea, a Japanese matcha brand sourcing single-origin ceremonial-grade tencha from six prefectures across Japan.

For the latest on tencha pricing right now, see our breakdown of the 2026 Kyoto tencha opening auction and what it means for the rest of 2026.