The 2026 Matcha Shortage Explained: A Founder's View From the Sourcing Floor

By Christian Mauerer, Founder of One with Tea · Published April 28, 2026

If you've noticed your matcha tin getting smaller, your latte getting more expensive, or your favorite brand quietly going "out of stock," you're not imagining it. Japan's 2025 fiscal year saw the country's green tea exports rise 42% in volume to 13,125 metric tons, while export value roughly doubled to ¥84.7 billion (The Japan Times, 2026). Foreign green tea imports into Japan jumped 82% to backfill a domestic market squeezed by export pull. Wholesale tencha prices in 2025 saw the steepest year-over-year jump in industry memory, and every credible analyst I've spoken with this spring expects the supply situation to worsen through August 2026 before it starts to recover.

I run a small US matcha brand. I source directly from Japanese organic-certified farms, and I've spent most of 2025 and 2026 watching this unfold from the buyer's side of the table. Here is what's actually happening, what it means for what you pay, and what to look for so you don't get burned.

What's Actually Causing the Shortage

The 2026 matcha shortage is a tencha problem, not a general green tea problem. Tencha is the shade-grown leaf used to make ceremonial matcha, and only a few hundred Japanese farmers grow it well. Global demand for matcha jumped roughly eightfold in five years while tencha planting cycles measure in decades, a tea bush takes five years to reach full production. The result is structural undersupply on the ceremonial side, even as Japan's broader green tea exports rose 42% in 2025. Foreign buyers are paying premiums to reserve the next harvest months in advance, and culinary-grade matcha is increasingly being relabeled and sold as ceremonial in many Western markets. The real shortage is honest single-origin first-harvest tencha, not the powder on most café shelves.

According to industry reports compiled by the Global Japanese Tea Association and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), four pressures stacked on each other in 2024 and 2025 in a way the supply chain wasn't built to absorb.

Demand exploded faster than supply could possibly respond. The global matcha market roughly tripled in production from 2010 to 2023, but the latest demand curve, fueled by the latte boom, social media, and a wellness category that finally accepted bitter green powder as a daily staple, broke past what the existing fields could deliver. Japan's matcha export value alone reached approximately ¥400 billion ($2.7 billion) by 2025, up from ¥292 billion ($2 billion) in 2023 (Real Gaijin newsletter, 2026).

The 2024 heatwaves cut yields. Record-breaking temperatures across Kyoto and Aichi prefectures during the critical spring shading window damaged tencha quality and reduced harvestable volume. Industry coverage from Perfect Daily Grind documented the harvest stress and the supply tightening that fed directly into the 2025 wholesale price moves.

The labor base is aging out. Between 2000 and 2020, Japan lost 53,000 tea farmers to retirement, and the next generation has not stepped in at the same rate (Nio Teas). New tea plants take 4 to 5 years to reach maturity and yields stay low even then. So even an aggressive planting response now does not reach the shelf in meaningful volume until roughly 2030.

Production is geographically concentrated. Real ceremonial-grade tencha comes from a handful of regions: Uji (Kyoto), Nishio (Aichi), Kagoshima, and Shizuoka. When weather or disease hits one of them, the system has no slack to absorb it.

Why Wholesale Prices Moved So Hard

A wholesale jump of this scale on a commodity does not happen in normal market conditions. It happens when a structural supply ceiling collides with a structural demand floor and there is no substitute that buyers will accept. That's matcha in 2025.

The export data from Japan's MAFF makes the dynamic visible. Volume out of Japan rose 42% to 13,125 tons. Value rose far more steeply, doubling to ¥84.7 billion (Japan Times, 2026). That gap, where value grows roughly twice as fast as volume, is a textbook signature of buyers competing on price for a constrained product. US importers, European cafe chains, and Asian retailers were all bidding against each other for first claim on the 2025 first-flush.

At the wholesale level, the price moves cascaded. A 30g portion of premium ceremonial tencha that landed in the US for around $11 in 2023 is closer to $19-22 in early 2026 at our supplier level, before any tariff, freight, or retail margin. That's the reason a "ceremonial" tin under $20 on the shelf is increasingly economically impossible to produce honestly.

From the sourcing side, I'm watching the calendar more closely than ever. The annual spring tencha harvest in April and May sets the entire year's inventory. If the 2026 spring run is weak, the squeeze that started in fall 2025 extends another 12 months. If it's average, prices stabilize but don't fall meaningfully. If it's strong, we still don't get back to 2023 levels for at least another year because reserve inventories were exhausted in 2025.

What This Looks Like From a Buyer's Desk

I want to be honest about what I'm seeing, because the press coverage tends to focus on the supply story without the buyer-side reality.

Allocations are real. Several of the larger Japanese exporters are no longer accepting new accounts, or accepting them only on minimum-volume commitments that smaller US brands can't meet. The brands you trusted last year may not have the same product this year, even if the label looks identical. We've personally moved sourcing on two SKUs because our usual supplier couldn't honor the volume we needed at the quality we required.

Quality is also being tested. When demand vastly exceeds supply, the temptation to blend later-flush leaves into a "ceremonial" tin, or to skip steps in the stone-grinding process, gets very strong. This is the moment that third-party heavy-metal testing and lot-by-lot lab reports become non-negotiable for buyers. We publish ours on our Lab Results page, dated and named, and I encourage every drinker to demand the same of any brand they buy from this year.

The wholesale and food-service side is feeling it most. A coffee shop running matcha lattes through 2024 at a 70-75% gross margin is now looking at 50-55% if they hold the menu price. Some are passing the cost through, some are reformulating to a culinary-grade powder, some are dropping matcha from the menu altogether. We've had three new wholesale conversations this quarter that started with "our previous supplier just told us prices are going up 60%."

Why Foreign Green Tea Imports to Japan Are Up 82%

One of the more telling data points in the FY2025 export release is buried at the bottom: foreign green tea imports into Japan rose 82% to 5,801 metric tons (Japan Times, 2026). Cheaper Chinese, Vietnamese, and Korean green tea is filling Japan's domestic shelves to backfill the matcha export pull.

This matters for two reasons. First, it confirms the domestic Japanese market is also feeling the squeeze. The shortage isn't just a US story. Second, it raises real questions about the integrity of "Japanese green tea" labels. Foreign leaf re-packaged in Japan is technically legal in some configurations and is not technically matcha (matcha must be tencha, which is a specific Japanese cultivation). But the line is getting blurry, and origin-claim verification is going to be more important for consumers than ever.

If you care about authenticity, look for the JAS organic seal (Japan's national organic certification, with audited soil, water, and processing standards documented by Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries on its JAS organic standards page) plus a named region of origin. Vague labels like "Product of Japan" without a prefecture do not necessarily lie, but they leave the question open.

What Buyers Should Actually Do

For everyday buyers, the practical move during the 2026 shortage is to verify origin before price. Look for a specific Japanese region named on the package, Uji, Nishio, Yame, or Kagoshima, and a harvest date, not just Japan. Avoid anything that lists matcha with no grade distinction, that is almost always culinary powder being sold at ceremonial prices. If a brand cannot tell you who farmed the tencha, what cultivar it came from, or when it was stone-ground, you are paying for marketing and not for the leaf. Reserved-allocation brands, including most of the small US importers working directly with Japanese family farms, are still shipping at fair prices because they locked supply a year ago. The shortage is real, but it is a sourcing problem, not a quality ceiling.

The advice that matters depends on whether you're a daily drinker, a wholesale buyer, or a brand operator.

If you drink matcha at home: Don't panic-buy. Tin-hoarding accelerates the shortage and the powder loses freshness past 6-8 weeks open. Do prioritize brands that publish current heavy-metal lab reports (within the last 18 months) and name their region. Be skeptical of any "premium ceremonial" tin priced under $25 per 30 grams. If your usual brand quietly raised prices 30-50%, that's a sign they're sourcing honestly. The brands holding 2023 prices through 2026 are the ones to question. For more on what to look for, our buyer's guide for organic matcha walks through the seven quality markers in detail.

If you run a coffee shop, cafe, or restaurant with matcha on the menu: Lock in supply contracts now for the 2026 spring delivery (April-May). Talk to multiple suppliers about price floors and volume commitments. Consider whether a higher-quality latte-grade powder priced through to the customer is sustainable, versus dropping to a culinary blend that risks the menu's reputation. The brands that stay on the menu through this shortage will benefit from a thinned-out competitive set when supply normalizes.

If you operate a matcha brand: Diversify suppliers, lock allocations, and be honest with customers about why prices moved. The brands hiding the price story behind "premium positioning" are setting themselves up for trust problems when the market eventually reads the news cycles we're all watching now.

What We Expect for the Rest of 2026

Through the back half of 2026 we expect tencha wholesale prices to stay 30 to 60 percent above pre-2025 levels, with first-harvest April-May lots commanding the steepest premiums. Reserved-allocation contracts are now standard at most reputable Japanese trading houses, meaning the buyers who locked supply in early 2025 are protected and everyone else is shopping a smaller open pool. We expect a wave of new ceremonial matcha brands to appear, most of them culinary-grade from rebranded non-Uji or non-Japanese sources. Authentic ceremonial supply from Uji, Nishio, Yame, and Kagoshima will keep selling out within weeks of each harvest. The matcha trend itself is not slowing, global searches grew another 27% year over year, but the gap between marketing and what is actually in the tin will keep widening.

Honestly, no one can call the 2026 spring harvest until it lands in May. But the structural pressures (aging farmer base, five-year lag on new field investment, climate volatility, demand curve that hasn't shown signs of softening) point to a market that will look more like 2025 than 2023 for at least the next 24 months.

That said, this is also an industry-defining moment for the brands who source with care. The shortage is forcing a reckoning between brands that built margins on label inflation and brands that built supply on relationships and certification. Real ceremonial matcha will continue to exist, and continue to be wonderful. It will just cost what it actually costs to produce. For drinkers who care about the leaf, that's an adjustment worth making.

How One with Tea Is Sourcing Through It

For full transparency: we're navigating the same supply environment everyone else is, with smaller volumes and longer-term grower relationships than the larger brands. Our ceremonial 30g tin and 60g refill remain in stock and are USDA Organic, lab-tested, and sourced from named Japanese regions. We adjusted our pricing in early 2026 to reflect what landed cost actually became, not to chase the market. We post each lot's heavy-metal lab report on our Lab Results page.

If you're a cafe, restaurant, or brand exploring wholesale matcha during this period, our wholesale program is taking on a small number of new accounts for the 2026 season. Reach out before the spring allocations close.

Have a question about sourcing or want to talk wholesale? Email info@onewithtea.com. I read everything that comes in.

For the latest on tencha pricing right now, see our breakdown of the 2026 Kyoto tencha opening auction and what it means for the rest of 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 Matcha Shortage

Is there really a matcha shortage in 2026?

Yes, but specifically on ceremonial-grade tencha, the shade-grown leaf used for whisked matcha. Culinary-grade matcha is still available but at higher prices. Japan's 2025 green tea exports rose 42% in volume and roughly doubled in value to ¥84.7B, signaling demand far outpacing the tencha supply curve. Authentic single-origin ceremonial matcha from Uji, Nishio, and Yame sells out within weeks of each harvest.

What is actually causing the 2026 matcha shortage?

A five-year demand surge driven by social media and café adoption hit a tencha supply curve that takes decades to expand. Tencha bushes require five years to reach full production, and only a few hundred Japanese farmers grow it well. When global matcha consumption jumped roughly eightfold, the planting cycle could not respond fast enough. Foreign buyers also began reserving harvests months in advance, tightening the open-market pool.

How long will the matcha shortage last?

Expect elevated pricing through at least 2027, with the steepest premiums on first-harvest April-May tencha. New tencha plantings made in 2024-2025 will not reach full production until 2029-2030. The matcha trend itself shows no sign of slowing, global searches grew another 27% year over year. Supply will catch up gradually rather than snap back.

How much have matcha prices increased in 2026?

Tencha wholesale prices are running 30 to 60 percent above pre-2025 levels, with first-harvest ceremonial lots commanding the steepest premiums. Japan's 2025 export value for green tea doubled to ¥84.7B even as volume rose 42%, meaning unit prices roughly doubled. Retail ceremonial matcha that was $30 to $40 per 30g tin in 2023 is now commonly $50 to $80 from honest brands.

Where can I buy authentic matcha during the shortage?

Look for small US importers working directly with named Japanese family farms in Uji, Nishio, Yame, or Kagoshima. Reserved-allocation brands locked supply a year ago and are still shipping at fair prices. Avoid generic Japanese matcha with no region, no harvest date, and no grade distinction, that is typically culinary-grade powder sold at ceremonial prices. Single-origin transparency is the only reliable filter right now.

Is the matcha boom slowing down?

No. Global searches for matcha grew another 27% year over year, and café adoption in the US, UK, and Australia continues to climb. The supply gap is widening, not narrowing. What is slowing is the supply of authentic ceremonial-grade matcha from named Japanese farms, not the broader consumer interest.

Why are foreign green tea imports to Japan up 82%?

Japanese tea blenders are importing lower-grade Chinese and other foreign green tea to backfill domestic demand at price tiers where domestic supply has become too expensive. This is a structural sign of stress, Japan exports premium tea and imports filler. It also means more matcha sold globally as Japanese is increasingly blended with non-Japanese leaf at the wholesale level, raising real questions about provenance.